Question
Early warning systems: does anyone act on the warning?
We can forecast a flood three days out. Evacuation still happens on the day, when it is dangerous.
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People move when someone they trust tells them to, not when a system does. Who delivers your warning matters more than how early it is.
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We have been treating this as a technical problem for two years.
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We had the same with typhoons. Routing alerts through local leaders rather than SMS changed behaviour more than any accuracy improvement.
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